State legislative elections, 2015
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New Jersey • Virginia |
In the 50 states, there are 99 state legislative chambers, of which seven chambers held state legislative elections in November 2015.[1]
Republicans held six of the seven chambers up for election in 2015; while most were comfortably in GOP control, the Virginia State Senate became a targeted chamber due to its slim margin of control. With Virginia under divided government, term-limited Gov. Terry McAuliffe led a drive to elect Democrats to the Senate in the hopes of making his late-term agenda, including Medicaid expansion and a two-year budget plan, easier to advance.[2] Control of Virginia's state Senate remained at a 21-19 Republican majority after the elections.
A total of 131 of the country's 1,972 state senate seats and 407 of the country's 5,411 state house seats were up for a vote. This accounts for 6.6 percent of the country's state senate seats and 7.5 percent of the country's state house seats. Altogether, 538 (7.3%) of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats were up for election. Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia hold elections in odd-numbered years. The New Jersey State Senate was the only chamber in those four states without scheduled elections in 2015.
What's at stake
State government trifectas
A trifecta is when one political party holds these three positions in a state's government:
- The governorship
- A majority in the state senate
- A majority in the state house.
The concept of the trifecta is important in state lawmaking because in many states, the governor, senate majority leader and house majority leader play decisive roles in the legislative process.
Heading into the 2015 elections, 31 states were controlled by a trifecta. The following states held split-party control of their governments: Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington and West Virginia. Nebraska is a unique case in that the Governor of Nebraska is a Republican and the legislature, although technically nonpartisan, is controlled by a Republican majority. Nebraska is considered a trifecta as part of this calculation.[3]
States with a trifecta include:
7 Democratic trifectas
24 Republican trifectas
Of the four states with elections:
- Louisiana: Republican trifecta
- Mississippi: Republican trifecta
New Jersey State Legislature: Divided government- Virginia General Assembly: Divided government
Majority control
The following table details partisan balance in all 99 chambers.
| Partisan Balance of All 99 Chambers Before and After 2015 Elections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-election | Post-election | |||||||
| Legislative Chamber |
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| State senates | 14 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 35 | 0 | 1 |
| State houses | 16 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 30 | 68 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 68 | 0 | 1 |
Of the states that held elections:
- Just one chamber, the New Jersey General Assembly, was held by Democrats.
- Six chambers were Republican-controlled.
Virginia Senate battleground
The Virginia State Senate featured the smallest gap in partisan balance between parties, with 19 seats held by Democrats and 21 held by Republicans. Democrats needed to win a net gain of one seat to effectively wrest power away from Republicans; as Senate President, Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam would have presumably served as the tiebreaker in party-line votes of 20-20.[4] Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D), who could not run for a consecutive term in 2017, hoped that even a tie in the Senate would give him leverage in advancing Medicaid expansion, gun control and universal pre-kindergarten through a heavily Republican House of Delegates.[5]
Democrats faced a possible risk in a candidate who previously had been among their ranks. Former state Rep. Joseph Morrissey ran as an independent against incumbent Rosalyn Dance (D) in Senate District 16, meaning he himself could have become a deciding vote, something an unnamed Democratic senator told The Washington Post "would put us in a horrible position and make it very hard for us to maintain our integrity and have him be part of our caucus." As a Democrat, Morrissey resigned his House seat earlier in the year after being convicted of a misdemeanor stemming from his relationship with a then-17-year-old staffer. As an independent, he then won the special election to succeed himself, but resigned again to run for the Senate seat due to Republicans' strong control of the state House.[6] Morrissey left the race in September due to a paralyzed diaphragm.[7]
The Republican State Leadership Committee targeted the Senate in light of Virginia, as committee president Matt Walter stated, "[becoming] an increasingly important battleground state in presidential years."[8] McAuliffe, a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, was known as an effective fundraiser prior to winning office and sought to draw money towards Senate races; however, state Republican chairman John Whitbeck expected that his party would be able to surmount the money McAuliffe would bring in.[9][4]
Following the August on-air shooting death of Roanoke television journalist Alison Parker and her cameraman, Adam Ward, a national gun control advocacy group sought to spend $700,000 in advertising in the open District 10 race in October. On October 21, television stations began airing "Condolences," an ad by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund and featuring Parker's father, Andy. The group targeted Republican Glen Sturtevant, who in comparison raised about $56,000 from the National Rifle Association and $772,000 in total. According to Robert Holsworth of Virginia Commonwealth University, "For one group to put $700,000 into one-issue ads has to be unprecedented in state Senate races, particularly for a group from outside Virginia."[10] The group said at least $370,000 would be spent on broadcast television before spending on cable, radio and digital advertising.[11]
On October 22, Everytown announced $1.5 million in spending on television and digital advertising for Democratic candidate Jeremy McPike in the open District 29 race. McPike and Manassas Mayor Hal Parrish (R) ran to succeed outgoing incumbent Charles Colgan (D). The television advertisement is an adaptation of the previous "Condolences" spot. At the time of the ad buy, the two candidates had collectively raised $1.6 million.[12] Days before the election, McAuliffe's Common Good VA PAC had spent over $800,000 in favor of McPike and over $780,000 for Gecker.[13]
By late October, three Senate races were on pace to break fundraising records. Sturtevant and Democratic opponent Dan Gecker raised almost $2 million. In District 7, incumbent Frank Wagner (R) and Gary McCollum (D) raised $1.83 million. In the open District 29 race, Jeremy McPike (D) and Hal Parrish (R) raised about $1.61 million. In comparison, the 2007 race for District 27 showed about $1.54 million at the same point when adjusted for inflation; it ended with over $3 million raised.[14]
Despite both parties' hopes of carrying the momentum from a win into 2016, Larry Sabato and Geoffrey Skelley of the University of Virginia Center for Politics did not believe that the outcome of the Senate elections would have much effect on the 2016 presidential election, regardless of McAuliffe's connections to Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.[15] Late in the election cycle, a poll by Christopher Newport University showed that more than two-thirds of Virginia voters were not involved in even the 2015 legislative races.[16]
Impact of term limits
Louisiana was the only state holding elections for a term-limited legislature in 2015.
The following table details the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election due to term limits, broken down by party and chamber.
| Party | # of termed senators | # of termed representatives | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
 Democratic
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3 | 8 | 11 |
 Republican
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4 | 7 | 11 |
Competitiveness analysis
Two of the three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index -- the number of open seats and general elections between partisan candidates -- showed poor results compared to the election cycle four years prior. States with elections in 2015 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates and more incumbents ran for re-election than in the 2011 election cycle, the last time all four odd-year states held legislative elections. However, the percentage of incumbents facing primary opposition increased slightly.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there has not been an election cycle to do statistically worse when the three categories are given an averaged score. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Comparison between years | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 2013 | 2015 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 31.9 | 30.9 | 24.8 |
| % Open Seats | 18.2% | 6.8% | 13.9% |
| % Inc that did face primary | 20.1% | 12.2% | 21.8% |
| % Candidates that did face major party opp | 57.4% | 73.6% | 38.7% |
The objective of the analysis is to know which states have the most competitive electoral environment and which states have the least competitive electoral environments in 2015. The term "competitive" is not used to declare which states are hotly contested between political parties. Instead, the term is used to indicate competitive environment on a ballot access level. The Competitiveness Index focuses on the relative competitiveness of state legislative elections by noting where incumbents are being challenged and if opportunities for election bids are being considered by candidates.
Incumbent turnover
In addition to themes previously presented in the Competitiveness Index, Ballotpedia staff analyzed primary results to look for the following circumstances:
- Incumbents who were defeated by primary challengers
- Overall turnover, including defeated incumbents and retirements, and the total number of open seats heading into the general election.
- Of the 101 partisan incumbents who faced primary opposition, 16 were defeated.
- Seven Democrats were defeated, with 84.8 percent advancing past the primary.
- Nine Republicans were defeated, while the remaining 83.6 percent advanced.
- Overall, 84.2 percent of incumbents advanced past the primary.
- Seventy-five incumbents declined to seek re-election or were term-limited.
- Ninety-one incumbents retired or were defeated, meaning that 16.9 percent of seats were open heading into the general election.
Election dates
Mississippi opened the 2015 campaign season with a filing deadline in February 2015. The latest filing deadline in 2015 was in Louisiana on September 10.
The 2015 state legislative primaries started in New Jersey on June 2 and ended on October 24 with a primary in Louisiana.
The state legislative filing deadlines and primary dates listed by month were as follows:
Filing deadlines
The number of days between the candidate filing deadline and primary election varies widely from state to state.
February
- Mississippi: February 27
March
- Virginia: March 9
- New Jersey: March 30
September
- Louisiana: September 10
