Race rating definitions and methods
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Ballotpedia reports race ratings from three outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. This page explains how ratings are defined and assigned by these outlets. If you're wondering what the difference is between a safe and a likely Democratic race, or what it means for a race to tilt instead of lean Republican, you're in the right place.
Rating definitions
Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. The following are general definitions for each rating, arranged from highest to lowest degree of party advantage.
- Safe/Solid Democratic / Safe/Solid Republican: One party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.[1]
- Likely Democratic / Likely Republican: One party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean Democratic / Lean Republican: One party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.
- Tilt Democratic / Tilt Republican: One party has a slight edge, but the race is highly competitive.[2]
- Toss-up: Neither party has an edge.
Rating definitions vary slightly from one outlet to another. You can compare each outlet's published definitions in the table below.[3][4][5]
How are races rated?
There is no exhaustive list of the factors these outlets may consider when rating any given race. The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball each said that their ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[6][7][8]
Inside Elections editor Nathan Gonzalez told us they also consider fundraising, breaking news, and incumbent strength when rating races. Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Crystal Ball, noted fundraising and the national political environment as considerations. Charlie Cook, editor of Cook Political Report, said their ratings are also informed by meetings with candidates and by conversations with political operatives, party strategists, and state sources.
Factors vary; research and judgment are the threads that run throughout the ratings.
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Cook and Inside Elections use "Solid," while Sabato's Crystal Ball uses "Safe." We treat these ratings as interchangeable.
- ↑ Inside Elections is the only outlet among the three that uses this rating.
- ↑ The Cook Political Report, "2018 Senate Race Ratings," April 9, 2018
- ↑ Roll Call, "Roll Call’s 2018 Election Guide," accessed April 19, 2018
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "Ratings Changes — And Non-Changes," August 8, 2013
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
