Presidential election in Iowa, 2024

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Iowa
2024 presidential election
Voting in Iowa

Democratic primary: March 5, 2024
Democratic winner: TBD

Republican caucus: January 15, 2024
Republican winner: TBD

Electoral College: Six votes
2020 winner: Donald Trump (R)
2016 winner: Donald Trump (R)
2012 winner: Mitt Romney (R)

Use the dropdown menu below to read more about the presidential election in each state



Iowa will hold an election for president of the United States on November 5, 2024, along with 49 other states and the District of Columbia.

The Republican Party will hold a presidential nominating caucus on January 15, 2024. The Democratic Party will hold a mail-in primary ending on March 5, 2024.

In the last 10 presidential elections, the Democratic candidate won the state in six elections and the Republican candidate won the state four times. Over those 10 elections, Iowa has voted for the eventual winner seven times.[1]

This page includes the following sections:

Candidates and election results

Primary election

The following candidates will appear on Iowa Democrats' mail-in ballot:


Democratic primary

See also: Democratic presidential nomination, 2024
HIGHLIGHTS
  • Iowa will hold a mail-in Democratic presidential primary ending on March 5, 2024.
  • Iowa will have an estimated 46 delegates comprised of 40 pledged delegates and 6 superdelegates. Delegate allocation will be proportional.
  • The Democratic caucus will be closed, meaning only registered Democrats will be able to participate.

    • The Democratic Party will select its presidential nominee at the 2024 Democratic National Convention, which will take place from August 19-22, 2024, in Chicago, Illinois.

    Prior to the national convention, individual state caucuses and primaries are held to allocate convention delegates. To read more about the 2024 primary schedule click here. These delegates, along with superdelegates who come from the party leadership, vote at the convention to select the nominee.

    Ballotpedia has identified the following noteworthy candidates seeking the Democratic nomination:

    • Joe Biden (D), incumbent president of the United States, announced he would run for re-election on April 25, 2023.[2]
    • Dean Phillips (D), a U.S. representative from Minnesota, announced his candidacy on October 26, 2023.[3]
    • Marianne Williamson (D), 2020 presidential candidate and author, announced her candidacy on February 23, 2023.[4]


    Republican caucus

    See also: Republican presidential nomination, 2024
    HIGHLIGHTS
  • Iowa will hold its Republican primary caucus on January 15, 2024.
  • Iowa will have an estimated 40 delegates. Delegate allocation will be proportional.
  • The Republican caucus will be closed, meaning only registered Republicans will be able to participate.

    • The Republican Party will select its presidential nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention, which will take place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, from July 15-18, 2024. Before the convention, each state, Washington, D.C., and five U.S. territories will hold a primary, caucus, or convention to decide how to allocate delegates at the national convention. These nominating events typically begin in February of an election year, though 2024 primary dates are still uncertain.

    The Republican National Committee began holding primary debates in August 2023, with the first debate taking place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.[5]

    Ballotpedia has identified the following noteworthy candidates seeking the Republican nomination:

    • Ryan Binkley (R), a businessman and pastor, announced his candidacy on April 23, 2023.[6]
    • Chris Christie (R), former governor of New Jersey, announced his candidacy on June 6, 2023.[7]
    • Ron DeSantis (R), the governor of Florida, announced his candidacy on May 24, 2023.[8]
    • Nikki Haley (R), former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Governor, announced her candidacy on February 14, 2023.[9]
    • Asa Hutchinson (R), former Arkansas Governor, announced his candidacy on April 2, 2023.[10]
    • Vivek Ramaswamy (R), entrepreneur and political commentator, announced his candidacy on February 21, 2023.[11]
    • Donald Trump (R), former U.S. President, announced his candidacy on November 15, 2022.[12]


    Candidate filing requirements

    See also: Ballot access requirements for presidential candidates in Iowa

    This section will be updated as information becomes available. The tables below detail filing requirements for presidential candidates in Iowa in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Iowa, click here.

    Presidential primary candidates

    Note that political parties in Iowa conduct caucuses instead of presidential preference primaries. As such, no filing requirements apply for partisan candidates.

    Independent presidential candidates

    Filing requirements for independent candidates in Iowa, 2024
    State Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
    Iowa 3,500 Fixed by statute N/A N/A 8/16/2024 Source

    Presidential election competitiveness

    Polling

    The section below displays national polling averages for the 2024 Democratic and Republican presidential nominations from RealClearPolitics.

    Prediction markets

    The section below displays national PredictIt share prices and RealClearPolitics prediction market averages for the 2024 Democratic and Republican presidential nominations.

    What is a prediction market?

    Prediction markets allow users to purchase shares relating to the outcome of events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. For instance, an election contested between four candidates would be represented by eight separate contracts, with each contract correlating to a particular candidate winning or losing the election.

    The share price in each individual forecast rises and falls based on market demand. Once the event's outcome is decided, holders of shares that correlate with the correct outcome receive a payout for each share they held.

    For example, a user buys 10 shares at 20 cents each in a presidential primary saying Candidate A will win. If Candidate A wins the election, the user earns $10. If the candidate loses, the user earns no money and loses his original $2 investment.

    Why do prediction markets matter?

    Prediction markets can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Microsoft Research economist David Rothschild argued that they are better suited to the task than polls: "I can create a poll that can mimic everything about a prediction market...except markets have a way of incentivizing you to come back at 2 a.m. and update your answer."[13][14][15]

    PredictIt


    The chart below shows 2024 Democratic presidential primary open share prices over time.[16]

    RealClearPolitics prediction market averages

    PredictIt


    The chart below shows 2024 Republican presidential primary open share prices over time.[17]

    RealClearPolitics prediction market averages


    Presidential election endorsements in Iowa

    See also: Presidential election endorsements, 2024

    The section below displays current and former party leaders, governors and other state executives, members of Congress, mayors of large cities, and state legislative majority and minority leaders in Iowa who issued an endorsement in the 2024 presidential election. See something we missed? Email us.

    Presidential endorsements by Iowa elected officials and party leaders, 2024
    Name State Party Candidate Date
    Kim Reynolds IA Republican Party Ron DeSantis November 6, 2023 source
    Amy Sinclair IA Republican Party Ron DeSantis May 11, 2023 source
    Brenna Bird IA Republican Party Donald Trump October 16, 2023 source
    Roby Smith IA Republican Party Vivek Ramaswamy August 21, 2023 source


    Effect of the 2020 census on electoral votes

    Every ten years, the United States conducts the census, a complete count of the U.S. population. The data gleaned from the census process is used to determine several things, including legislative district lines, a state's number of U.S. House representatives, and the number of votes a state has in the Electoral College.

    The 2024 presidential election will be the first presidential election to take place using the electoral vote counts produced by the 2020 census. Six states gained votes in the Electoral College, while seven states lost votes. See the table below for exact figures.

    Electoral votes gained and lost after the 2020 census
    State Votes gained (new total) State Votes lost (new total)
    Texas +2 (40) California -1 (54)
    Colorado +1 (10) Illinois -1 (19)
    Florida +1 (30) Michigan -1 (15)
    Montana +1 (4) New York -1 (28)
    North Carolina +1 (16) Ohio -1 (17)
    Oregon +1 (8) Pennsylvania -1 (19)
    West Virginia -1 (4)


    Previous presidential election results and analysis

    See also: Presidential voting history by state and Presidential voting trends by state

    Iowa presidential election results (1900-2020)

    Scroll to the right in the box below to view more recent presidential election results.

    • 11 Democratic wins
    • 20 Republican wins
    Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
    Winning Party R R R D R R R R D D R R D R R R D R R R R R D D D D R D D R R


    Below is an analysis of Iowa's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

    Between 1900 and 2020:

    • Iowa participated in 31 presidential elections.
    • Iowa voted for the winning presidential candidate 74.2 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 71.26 percent.[18]
    • Iowa voted Democratic 35.5 percent of the time and Republican 64.5 percent of the time.

    Recent statewide results

    2020

    General election


    Presidential election results in Iowa, 2020
     
    Candidate/Running mate
    %
    Popular votes
    Electoral votes
    ✔
    Image of
    Image of
    		Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R)
     
    53.1
     
    		897,672 6
    Image of
    Image of
    		Joe Biden/Kamala D. Harris (D)
     
    44.9
     
    		759,061 0
    Image of
    Image of
    		Jo Jorgensen/Spike Cohen (L)
     
    1.2
     
    		19,637 0
    Image of
    Image of
    		Ye/Michelle Tidball (Unaffiliated)
     
    0.2
     
    		3,210 0
    Image of
    Image of
    		Howie Hawkins/Angela Nicole Walker (G)
     
    0.2
     
    		3,075 0
    Image of
    Image of
    		Don Blankenship/William Mohr (Constitution Party)
     
    0.1
     
    		1,707 0
    Image of
    Image of
    		Roque De La Fuente/Darcy Richardson (Alliance Party)
     
    0.1
     
    		1,082 0
    Image of
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    		Ricki Sue King/Dayna Chandler (Genealogy Know Your Family History Party)
     
    0.0
     
    		546 0
    Image of
    Image of
    		Brock Pierce/Karla Ballard (Unaffiliated)
     
    0.0
     
    		544 0
      Other write-in votes
     
    0.3
     
    		4,337 0

    Incumbents are bolded and underlined The results have been certified.

    		Total votes: 1,690,871


    Primary election

    Iowa Democratic presidential caucus on February 3, 2020
     
    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    Pledged delegates
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Bernie_Sanders.jpg
    		Bernie Sanders
     
    26.5
     
    		45,652 12
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/150px-Pete_buttigieg.jpg
    		Pete Buttigieg
     
    25.1
     
    		43,209 14
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Elizabeth_Warren--Official_113th_Congressional_Portrait--.jpg
    		Elizabeth Warren
     
    20.3
     
    		34,909 8
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Official_portrait_of_Vice_President_Joe_Biden.jpg
    		Joe Biden
     
    13.7
     
    		23,605 6
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Amy_Klobuchar.jpg
    		Amy Klobuchar
     
    12.2
     
    		21,100 1
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Screen_Shot_2019-02-21_at_3.25.16_PM.png
    		Andrew Yang
     
    1.0
     
    		1,758 0
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Tom_Steyer.jpg
    		Tom Steyer
     
    0.2
     
    		413 0
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/400px-Mike_Bloomberg_Headshot.jpg
    		Michael Bloomberg
     
    0.0
     
    		16 0
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/TulsiGabbardReplace.jpg
    		Tulsi Gabbard
     
    0.0
     
    		16 0
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Michael_Bennet.jpg
    		Michael Bennet
     
    0.0
     
    		4 0
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Deval_Patrick.jpg
    		Deval Patrick
     
    0.0
     
    		0 0
      Other
     
    1.0
     
    		1,656 0

     Source

    		Total votes: 172,338 • Total pledged delegates: 41


    Iowa Republican presidential caucus on February 3, 2020
     
    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    Pledged delegates
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/473px-Official_Portrait_of_President_Donald_Trump.jpg
    		Donald Trump
     
    97.1
     
    		31,464 39
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Bill_Weld_campaign_portrait.jpg
    		Bill Weld
     
    1.3
     
    		426 1
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Joe_Walsh.jpg
    		Joe Walsh
     
    1.1
     
    		348 0
      Other
     
    0.5
     
    		151 0

     Source

    		Total votes: 32,389 • Total pledged delegates: 40


    Recent county-level results

    How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:


    Following the 2020 presidential election, 40.1% of Iowans lived in one of the state's six Solid Democratic counties, which voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election from 2012 to 2020, and 31.6% lived in one of 61 Solid Republican counties. Overall, Iowa was Trending Republican, having voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Donald Trump (R) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Iowa following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.

    Presidential elections by state decided by 5 percentage points or less

    See also: Presidential statewide margins of victory of 5 percentage points or fewer, 1948-2020

    The following map shows the number of times, in presidential elections held between 1948 and 2020, that the margin of victory was 5 percentage points or fewer in each state.

    • Wisconsin was the state with the most frequently narrow margins during this time period, appearing on the list in 11 presidential elections.
    • Three states appeared nine times: Florida, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
    • The state with the narrowest margin of victory was Florida in 2000 at 537 votes or one-hundredth of a percentage point.

    About the state

    This information was current as of 2022. Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.

    • Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
    • State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
    • Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.

    Statewide elections

    This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.

    U.S. Senate elections

    See also: List of United States Senators from Iowa

    The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Iowa.

    U.S. Senate election results in Iowa
    Race Winner Runner up
    2020 51.8%Republican Party 45.2%Democratic Party
    2016 60.1%Republican Party 35.7%Democratic Party
    2014 52.1%Republican Party 43.8%Republican Party
    2010 64.5%Republican Party 33.2%Democratic Party
    2008 62.7%Democratic Party 37.3%Republican Party
    Average 58.2 39.0

    Gubernatorial elections

    See also: Governor of Iowa

    The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Iowa.

    Gubernatorial election results in Iowa
    Race Winner Runner up
    2018 50.3%Republican Party 47.5%Democratic Party
    2014 59.0%Republican Party 37.3%Democratic Party
    2010 52.8%Republican Party 43.2%Republican Party
    2006 54.0%Democratic Party 44.4%Republican Party
    2002 52.7%Democratic Party 44.5%Republican Party
    Average 53.8 43.4

    State partisanship

    Congressional delegation

    The table below displays the partisan composition of Iowa's congressional delegation as of November 2022.

    Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Iowa, November 2022
    Party U.S. Senate U.S. House Total
    Democratic 0 1 1
    Republican 2 3 5
    Independent 0 0 0
    Vacancies 0 0 0
    Total 2 4 6

    State executive

    The table below displays the officeholders in Iowa's top four state executive offices as of November 2022.

    State executive officials in Iowa, November 2022
    Office Officeholder
    Governor Republican Party Kim Reynolds
    Lieutenant Governor Republican Party Adam Gregg
    Secretary of State Republican Party Paul Pate
    Attorney General Democratic Party Thomas John Miller

    State legislature

    The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Iowa General Assembly as of November 2022.

    Iowa State Senate

    Party As of November 2022
         Democratic Party 18
         Republican Party 32
         Vacancies 0
    Total 50

    Iowa House of Representatives

    Party As of November 2022
         Democratic Party 40
         Republican Party 60
         Vacancies 0
    Total 100

    Trifecta control

    As of November 2022, Iowa was a Republican trifecta, with majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and control of the governorship. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.

    Iowa Party Control: 1992-2022
    Four years of Democratic trifectas  •  Eight years of Republican trifectas
    Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

    Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
    Governor R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R
    Senate D D D D D R R R R R R R R S S D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R
    House D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R

    Demographics

    The table below details demographic data in Iowa and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.

    Demographic Data for Iowa
    Iowa United States
    Population 3,046,355 308,745,538
    Land area (sq mi) 55,853 3,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White 90% 72.5%
    Black/African American 3.7% 12.7%
    Asian 2.4% 5.5%
    Native American 0.4% 0.8%
    Pacific Islander 0.1% 0.2%
    Two or more 2.1% 3.3%
    Hispanic/Latino 6% 18%
    Education
    High school graduation rate 92.1% 88%
    College graduation rate 28.6% 32.1%
    Income
    Median household income $60,523 $62,843
    Persons below poverty level 11.5% 13.4%
    Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2010). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2014-2019).
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


    Presidential election by state

    See also: Presidential election by state, 2024

    Click on a state below to navigate to information about the presidential election in that jurisdiction.

    https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_STATE,_2024

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ 270 to Win, "Iowa," accessed February 14, 2023
    2. ↑ YouTube, "Joe Biden Launches His Campaign For President: Let's Finish the Job," April 25, 2023
    3. ↑ The New York Times, "Dean Phillips Will Run Against Biden," October 26, 2023
    4. ↑ The Hill, "Marianne Williamson confirms she will run for president in 2024," February 23, 2023
    5. ↑ The Hill, "RNC votes to hold first presidential debate in Milwaukee," February 23, 2023
    6. ↑ The Hill, "Ryan Binkley, Texas CEO and pastor, announces 2024 Republican presidential run," April 24, 2023
    7. ↑ The New York Times, "Chris Christie Formally Enters ’24 Race, as He Takes Square Aim at Trump," June 6, 2023
    8. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Statement of Organization," accessed May 24, 2023
    9. ↑ Twitter, "Nikki Haley on February 14, 2023," accessed February 14, 2023
    10. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named asa
    11. ↑ Politico, "Vivek Ramaswamy announces he will run for president," February 21, 2023
    12. ↑ The New York Times, "Trump, ignoring the midterms’ verdict on him, announces a 2024 run, November 15, 2022"
    13. ↑ Nature, "The power of prediction markets," October 18, 2016
    14. ↑ Politico, "Meet the 'stock market' for politics," October 31, 2014
    15. ↑ U.S. Presidential General Election Results, "2008 Electoral Map Based on the Intrade Prediction Market," accessed January 25, 2018
    16. ↑ PredictIt, "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?" accessed December 20, 2022
    17. ↑ PredictIt, "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?" accessed December 20, 2022
    18. ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2020. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
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