Election results, 2023: State government trifectas

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
2024 »
« 2022
View all 2023 election results
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Results by office type
State
State executive officials
Governors
State government trifectas
State government triplexes
State legislatures
Attorneys General
Secretaries of State
State financial officers
State supreme courts
Election analysis

Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections
State legislative veto-proof majorities
State legislative races decided by fewer than 100 votes
State legislative margin of victory analysis
State legislative seats that changed party control
Minor-party candidates who won more than the margin of victory
Results of elected officials seeking other offices
Partisan balance of mayors of the 100 largest cities by population
Candidates with the same last names

Elections by state

After the November 2023 elections, there were 23 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 10 divided governments. Republicans gained one trifecta, Democrats neither gained nor lost any trifectas, and there was one less divided government. Before the 2023 elections, there were 22 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 11 divided governments where neither party held trifecta control.

State government trifecta is a term to describe single-party government, when one political party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature.

Following the November 2023 elections, there were a total of 40 state government trifectas. This was the highest number of trifectas across the country since at least 1992.

The only change in trifecta status was in Louisiana, which changed from a divided government to a Republican trifecta after Jeff Landry (R) was elected governor on October 14.

Kentucky remained a divided government after Gov. Andy Beshear (D) was re-elected governor. The Kentucky State Legislature was not on the ballot in 2023, so it remained under Republican control. Virginia remained a divided government after Democrats maintained control of the Virginia State Senate and won the Virginia House of Delegates. Governor Glenn Youngkin (R) was not up for election in 2023.

Mississippi and New Jersey remained Republican and Democratic trifectas, respectively, after those parties maintained partisan control of the legislature in each state. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) was re-elected in Mississippi, and New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) was not up for election in 2023.

On this page, you will find:

Trifectas on the ballot in 2023

In 2023, there were five trifectas—one Democratic, one Republican, and three divided governments— on the ballot. The table below highlights the partisan balance of those five trifectas before and after the election.

Trifectas partisan breakdown
Party As of the 2023 elections After the 2023 elections
Democratic Party Democratic 1 1
Republican Party Republican 1 2
Independent_American_Party Divided governments 3 2

The map below highlights states that held elections for governor, state legislature, or both in 2023 by the party of the winning candidate.

Partisan balance of all trifectas

At the time of the 2023 election, there were 22 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 11 divided governments where neither party held trifecta control. The table below highlights the trifecta status of all 50 states before and after the 2023 elections.

Trifectas partisan breakdown
Party As of the 2023 elections After the 2023 elections
Democratic Party Democratic 17 17
Republican Party Republican 22 23
Independent_American_Party Divided governments 11 10

The chart below shows the trifecta status of all 50 states from 1992 through 2024, when the 2023 election winners will be sworn in.

The map below highlights each state by trifecta status before and after the 2023 elections. Click the blue links above the color key to switch the view between pre-election and post-election partisan control.

Pre-election analysis

Vulnerable state government trifectas

The section below analyses the vulnerability of trifectas on the ballot in 2023 based on gubernatorial race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, and the number and proportion of seats in the state legislature that needed to change party control to flip the chamber. Click here to read more about our methodology.


Democratic Party
Current status: 1 trifecta
Moderately vulnerable: 1
 		Republican Party
Current status: 1 trifecta
Not vulnerable: 1

Vulnerable trifectas

Democratic Party New Jersey

Republican Party None


Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details.


Potential new trifectas

The section below analyses the likelihood of divided governments on the ballot in 2023 becoming new trifectas based on gubernatorial race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, and the number and proportion of seats in the state legislature that needed to change party control to flip the chamber. Click here to read more about our methodology.


Predicted Democratic pickups
None
 		Toss-ups
None 		Predicted Republican pickups
Moderate possibility: 2
Slight possibility: 1

Potential new trifectas

Democratic Party None

Independent_American_Party None

Republican Party Louisiana
Republican Party Virginia

Republican Party Kentucky


Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details. Toss-up states are those where Democratic and Republican trifectas both have a good chance of forming.


Potential best-case scenarios

The following maps represent best-case scenarios for each party based on pre-election projections and forecasting. We define a party's best-case scenario as an outcome in which the party gains all potential new trifectas that are rated towards that party or as a toss-up, as well as retaining all of their current trifectas. Additionally, under a party's best-case scenario, the opposing party loses all of its somewhat and moderately vulnerable trifectas.

The Democrats' best-case scenario was for there to be no change from the trifecta status in place before the 2023 elections.

Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2022 election for Democrats
Total Democratic trifectas Republican trifectas Divided governments
States 50 17 22 11
Population 328,771,307[1] 136,955,272 130,058,201 61,757,834
Proportion (%) 100% 41.7% 39.6% 18.8%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau



The Republicans' best-case scenario in 2023 was to break the Democratic trifecta in New Jersey and gain new trifectas in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Virginia.

Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2022 election for Republicans
Total Democratic trifectas Republican trifectas Divided governments
States 50 16 25 9
Population 328,771,307[2] 128,072,901 147,771,333 52,927,073
Proportion (%) 100% 39.0% 44.9% 16.1%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau


Log of trifecta election results


Historical changes in trifecta status (2010-2022)

2022

The 2022 gubernatorial and state legislative elections led to these results:

Partisan control changes as a result of the 2022 elections
State Pre-election party in power Post-election party in power
Arizona Republican Divided government
Maryland Divided government Democratic
Massachusetts Divided government Democratic
Michigan Divided government Democratic
Minnesota Divided government Democratic
Nevada Democratic Divided government

2021

The 2021 gubernatorial and state legislative elections led to these results:

Partisan control changes as a result of the 2021 elections
State Pre-election party in power Post-election party in power
Virginia Democratic Divided government

2020

The 2020 gubernatorial and state legislative elections led to these results:

Partisan control changes as a result of the 2020 elections
State Pre-election party in power Post-election party in power
Montana Divided government Republican
New Hampshire Divided government Republican

2019

The 2019 gubernatorial and state legislative elections led to these results:

Partisan control changes as a result of the 2019 elections
State Pre-election party in power Post-election party in power
Kentucky Republican Divided government
Virginia Divided government Democratic

2018

The state legislative and gubernatorial elections of November 6, 2018, led to these results:

  • The Republican Party lost four trifectas (in Kansas, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin), ending up with 22 in six states. They did not gain any additional trifectas.
  • The Democratic Party added new state government trifectas in six states: Colorado, Illinois, Maine, New Mexico, New York, and Nevada. They did not lose any trifectas, leaving them with 14.
Partisan control changes as a result of the 2018 elections
State Pre-election party in power Post-election party in power
Colorado Divided government Democratic
Illinois Divided government Democratic
Kansas Republican Divided government
Maine Divided government Democratic
Michigan Republican Divided government
Nevada Divided government Democratic
New Hampshire Republican Divided government
New Mexico Divided government Democratic
New York Divided government Democratic
Wisconsin Republican Divided government

2017

The 2017 gubernatorial and state legislative elections led to these results:

Partisan control changes as a result of the 2017 elections
State Pre-election party in power Post-election party in power
New Jersey Divided government Democratic
Washington Divided government Democratic

2016

The state legislative and gubernatorial elections of November 8, 2016, led to these results:

  • The Republican Party added new state government trifectas in four states (Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri and New Hampshire). They lost trifectas in Nevada and North Carolina, which left them with 25 trifectas.
  • The Democratic Party lost one trifecta (in Vermont), ending up with trifectas in six states. They did not gain any additional trifectas.
State Pre-election party in power Post-election party in power Change?
Colorado Divided government Divided government No
Iowa Divided government Republican Yes
Indiana Republican Republican No
Kentucky Divided government Republican Yes
Maine Divided government Divided government No
Michigan Republican Republican No
Minnesota Divided government Divided government No
Missouri Divided government Republican Yes
Montana Divided government Divided government No
Nevada Republican Divided government Yes
New Hampshire Divided government Republican Yes
New Mexico Divided government Divided government No
New York Divided government Divided government No
North Carolina Republican Divided government Yes
Vermont Democrat Divided government Yes
Washington Divided government Divided government No
West Virginia Divided government Divided government No
Wisconsin Republican Republican No

2014

Potential trifecta losses prior to election

Ballotpedia identified 13 trifecta states that could have become divided governments after the November 4, 2014, election:[5]

  • Republican Party 6 Republican trifectas
  • Democratic Party 7 Democratic trifectas[5]

In the table below, a "Yes" indicates that party control was considered up for grabs, while a "No" indicates races that were not deemed likely to change hands.

State Positions that could change hands Pre-election party in power Post-election party in power
Governor Senate House
Arizona Yes Yes No Republican Republican
Colorado No Yes No Democratic Divided government
Connecticut Yes No No Democratic Democratic
Florida Yes No No Republican Republican
Illinois Yes No No Democratic Divided government
Kansas Yes No No Republican Republican
Maryland Yes No No Democratic Divided government
Massachusetts Yes No No Democratic Divided government
Michigan Yes No Yes Republican Republican
Minnesota No No Yes Democratic Divided government
Pennsylvania Yes Yes Yes Republican Divided government
West Virginia No No Yes Democratic Divided government
Wisconsin Yes Yes No Republican Republican

2013

November

Virginia's governorship swung Democratic on November 5, 2013, as Terry McAuliffe (D) defeated Ken Cuccinelli (R). This removed a Republican trifecta in Virginia.

May

In May 2013, Governor of Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee changed his party affiliation from independent to Democratic, giving the Democratic Party a trifecta in Rhode Island.[6]

2012

See also: Democratic and Republican state government trifectas heading into the 2012 elections

Heading into the 2012 elections, there were 33 total trifectas in the United States. After the election, there were five new trifectas, bringing the total to 38 trifectas. However, following the election, power-sharing arrangements in two states reduced the total trifectas to 36.

Trifecta complexities

There were three states that complicated the labeling of trifectas in 2012 and 2013. These three unique situations brought the total trifectas from 37 to 36, decreasing the Democratic states by two and adding one GOP state.

  • In New York, the Democratic Party, by virtue of the elections, controlled all three levels of government. However, a power-sharing agreement was reached that gave control of the state Senate over to the Republicans; five elected Democrats pledged to caucus with the GOP. This burst the Democratic trifecta, reducing the total trifectas by one state.[7]
  • In Virginia, the state Senate was a tied chamber as a result of the 2011 elections. However, the tiebreaking vote was cast by the lieutenant governor, who was a Republican. Thus, control of the governorship and state legislature effectively rested with the Republicans. This gave Republicans an additional trifecta, increasing the total trifectas by one state.[8]
  • In Washington, the Democratic Party, by virtue of the elections, controlled all three levels of government. However, a power-sharing agreement was reached that gave control of the state Senate over to the Republicans; two conservative Democrats pledged to elect Republican leadership to the chamber. This burst the Democratic trifecta, reducing the total trifectas by one state.[9]
 Trifectas before and after the 2012 election 

  • This was the status of trifectas before the 2012 election.

  • This was the status of trifectas after the 2012 election.

2010

See also: Democratic and Republican state government trifectas heading into the 2010 elections

Heading into the 2010 elections, there were 25 total trifectas in the United States. After the election, there were seven new trifectas, bringing the total to 32 trifectas.

 Trifectas before and after the 2010 election 

  • This was the status of trifectas before the 2010 election.

  • This was the status of trifectas after the 2010 election.

Analysis of state elections, 2023

See also: Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2023

State legislative elections

State Houses-Tile image.png
See also: State legislative elections, 2023

Eight of the country's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly-scheduled elections in 2023. Elections in those eight chambers represented 578 of the country's 7,386 state legislative seats (7.8%). This was the most seats up for election in an odd-numbered year since 2011.

  • Democrats gained control of one state legislative chamber by winning partisan control of the Virginia House of Delegates. Democrats maintained control of the state Senate. Virginia's trifecta status remained divided.
  • Republicans were guaranteed simple majorities in both Mississippi's House and Senate and Louisiana's House and Senate due to the number of districts where candidates from only one political party ran.
  • Democrats maintained partisan control of both chambers of the New Jersey state legislature.

Analysis


State executive elections

State-capitol-utah.jpg
See also: State executive official elections, 2023


Analysis

State judicial elections

Gavel-square.png
See also: State judicial elections, 2023

A total of 15 state appellate court seats were up for election in 2023. This includes:

  • 2 supreme court seats
  • 13 intermediate appellate court seats.

The number of state supreme court and intermediate court elections is subject to change if judges retire or are appointed.

Ballotpedia provided coverage of supreme court and intermediate appellate court elections, as well as local trial court elections for judges within the 100 largest cities in the United States as measured by population.

Analysis

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed March 14, 2022
  2. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed March 14, 2022
  3. ↑ Delaware State News, "Balance of Delaware senate shifts after Blevins loss", November 9, 2016
  4. ↑ Hartford Courant, "Republicans Will Share Driver's Seat In CT", November 11, 2016
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 Note: Illinois and Minnesota were not in this list prior to election night but were added on November 4.
  6. ↑ Politico, "Lincoln Chafee switches affiliation to Democrat," May 30, 2013
  7. ↑ National Journal, "GOP, IDC Strike Deal on NY Senate Power Sharing," December 4, 2012
  8. ↑ NBC 10, "Republicans take control of Va. Senate," January 11, 2012
  9. ↑ Washington Secretary of State, "GOP-led coalition grabs power in WA Senate," December 10, 2012
v • e
Governors
Current Governors
GovernorsLogo.jpg
Elections
2024 • 2023 • 2022 • 2021 • 2020 • 2019 • 2018 • 2017 • 2016 • 2015 • 2014 • 2013 • 2012 • 2011 • 2010
Features
v • e
Ballotpedia
About
Executive: Leslie Graves, President • Gwen Beattie, Chief Operating Officer • Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy • Michelle Robinson, Senior Product Manager, Education & School Boards

Communications: Alison Graves • Carley Allensworth • Abigail Campbell • Sarah Groat • Erica Shumaker • Caitlin Vanden Boom
External Relations: Andrew Heath • Moira Delaney • Hannah Nelson
Operations: Meghann Olshefski • Amanda Herbert • Mandy Morris • Caroline Presnell • Kelly Rindfleisch
Policy: Caitlin Styrsky • Audrey Bayne • Molly Byrne • Jon Dunn • Jimmy McAllister • Annelise Reinwald
Research: Josh Altic
Tech: Matt Latourelle • Ryan Burch • Kirsten Corrao • Beth Dellea • Travis Eden • Tate Kamish • Margaret Kearney • Eric Lotto • Trevor Pollo • Joseph Sanchez

Contributors: Scott Rasmussen
Editorial
Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Election_results,_2023:_State_government_trifectas&oldid=9273130"