Election results, 2020: Boomerang Pivot Counties
| 2020 Election Analysis: Pivot Counties |
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Retained • Boomerang Margins of victory Voter turnout Demographics |
Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide that Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in the 2016 presidential election. These counties are sometimes referred to as swing counties by media and political observers.
This page provides a list and overview of the Boomerang Pivot Counties, defined as a Pivot County that voted for Trump in 2016 and for Joe Biden (D) in 2020. For more information on Retained Pivot Counties, those that voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, click here.
Trump won 181 Retained Pivot Counties across 32 states to Biden's 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties across 16 states.[1][2]
On this page, you will find:
- A map of Boomerang Pivot Counties
- A brief margin of victory analysis
- The list of all Boomerang Pivot Counties with vote totals
Overview
Map of Boomerang Pivot Counties
Margin of victory analysis
This table provides a comparison of the 2020 presidential election margins of victory in the 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties with historical margins in the same counties from 2008 to 2016. The first column shows Biden's performance in 2020 followed by Trump's in 2016 and Obama's in 2012 and 2008. The upper section shows the average margins of victory in terms of percentage points and the lower section shows the average in terms of total votes. The second and fourth rows show the historical averages across all 206 Pivot Counties.
Overall, Biden's margin of victory in Boomerang Pivot Counties did not exceed Obama's margins in 2008 and 2012. In previous elections, Trump underperformed in Boomerang Pivot Counties relative to his national averages and medians. In contrast, Obama overperformed in these counties.
| Margin of victory overview in the 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties following the 2020 election | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 (Biden) |
2016 (Trump) |
2012 (Obama) |
2008 (Obama) | |||
| Average margins of victory | ||||||
| Percentage points in Boomerang Pivot Counties |
+3.3 | +2.1 | +10.0 | +13.5 | ||
| Percentage points in all Pivot Counties |
- | +11.5 | +8.2 | +12.3 | ||
| Total votes in Boomerang Pivot Counties |
2,670 | 1,444 | 9,119 | 9,406 | ||
| Total votes in all Pivot Counties |
- | 2,824 | 2,747 | 3,692 | ||
Compared to Obama's results in 2012, the last time a Democrat won in these counties, Biden's margin of victory in Boomerang Pivot Counties decreased in 22 and increased in three: Hillsborough County, New Hampshire, Saratoga County, New York, and Clallam County, Washington.
The table below shows the five Pivot Counties with the largest change in margin of victory towards Biden compared to Hillary Clinton's (D) 2016 results, all of which are Boomerang Pivot Counties. Obama's margins from 2012 are included for reference.
| Largest margin changes in the 206 Pivot Counties towards Biden, 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Change from 2016 | 2020 margin | 2016 margin | 2012 margin | |
| Ziebach County | South Dakota | D+10.5 | D+8.5 | R+2.0 | D+16.4 | |
| Kent County | Delaware | D+8.9 | D+4.1 | R+4.9 | D+4.9 | |
| Saratoga County | New York | D+8.6 | D+5.4 | R+3.2 | D+2.4 | |
| Kent County | Rhode Island | D+8.3 | D+7.6 | R+0.7 | D+17.7 | |
| Warren County | New York | D+8.3 | R+0.2 | R+8.5 | D+2.3 | |
List of Boomerang Pivot Counties
The table below lists all Boomerang Pivot Counties. Vote totals for Trump and Biden are included as well as the margins of victory from 2008 to 2012. Percentages and percentage points are the upper values with numerical vote totals included in parentheses below.
| List of Boomerang Pivot Counties, 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Election results, 2020 | Margins of victory | ||||
| Biden | Trump | 2020 | 2016 | 2012 | 2008 | ||
| Pueblo County | Colorado | 49.57% (43,772) |
47.85% (42,252) |
+1.72 (1,520) |
+0.5 (390) |
+13.99 (10,657) |
+14.97 (10,840) |
| Kent County | Delaware | 51.19% (44,552) |
47.12% (41,009) |
+4.07 (3,543) |
+4.87 (3,640) |
+4.94 (3,392) |
+9.81 (6,565) |
| Pinellas County | Florida | 49.44% (277,450) |
49.22% (276,209) |
+0.22 (1,241) |
+1.11 (5,500) |
+5.65 (85,846) |
+8.25 (38,233) |
| Kennebec County | Maine | 48.57% (34,902) |
48.32% (34,721) |
+0.25 (181) |
+3.58 (2,373) |
+13.46 (8,549) |
+14.78 (9,756) |
| Saginaw County | Michigan | 49.37% (51,088) |
49.08% (50,785) |
+0.29 (303) |
+1.13 (1,073) |
+11.89 (11,661) |
+17.34 (18,051) |
| Blue Earth County | Minnesota | 50.84% (18,330) |
46.41% (16,731) |
+4.44 (1,599) |
+3.69 (1,239) |
+9.48 (3,248) |
+12.95 (4,543) |
| Clay County | Minnesota | 50.74% (16,357) |
46.66% (15,043) |
+4.08 (1,314) |
+1.95 (572) |
+7.92 (2,288) |
+16.02 (4,688) |
| Nicollet County | Minnesota | 50.31% (9,622) |
47.15% (9,018) |
+3.16 (604) |
+3.04 (551) |
+7.83 (1,438) |
+10.52 (1,919) |
| Winona County | Minnesota | 49.07% (13,333) |
48.68% (13,227) |
+0.39 (106) |
+2.9 (756) |
+12.85 (3,500) |
+19.09 (5,333) |
| Blaine County | Montana | 50.96% (1,589) |
47.11% (1,469) |
+3.85 (120) |
+2.46 (66) |
+15.32 (438) |
+19.24 (563) |
| Hillsborough County | New Hampshire | 52.81% (122,344) |
45.16% (104,625) |
+7.65 (17,719) |
+0.2 (424) |
+1.12 (2,312) |
+3.73 (7,642) |
| Sullivan County | New Hampshire | 50.69% (12,390) |
47.08% (11,508) |
+3.61 (882) |
+2.58 (586) |
+13.27 (2,897) |
+17.93 (4,080) |
| Gloucester County | New Jersey | 49.99% (86,702) |
48.05% (83,340) |
+1.94 (3,362) |
+0.48 (674) |
+10.77 (14,557) |
+12.16 (16,952) |
| Broome County | New York | 50.53% (47,010) |
47.08% (43,800) |
+3.45 (3,210) |
+2.01 (1,731) |
+5.31 (4,329) |
+8.02 (7,127) |
| Essex County | New York | 51.62% (9,947) |
46.58% (8,976) |
+5.04 (971) |
+1.14 (196) |
+18.77 (3,137) |
+13.32 (2,477) |
| Rensselaer County | New York | 51.59% (40,969) |
45.96% (36,500) |
+5.63 (4,469) |
+1.41 (1,009) |
+12.19 (8,295) |
+9.34 (6,913) |
| Saratoga County | New York | 51.62% (68,471) |
46.21% (61,305) |
+5.4 (7,166) |
+3.21 (3,662) |
+2.44 (2,575) |
+3.4 (3,790) |
| Montgomery County | Ohio | 50.18% (135,064) |
47.94% (129,034) |
+2.24 (6,030) |
+0.73 (1,893) |
+4.62 (12,298) |
+6.22 (17,318) |
| Erie County | Pennsylvania | 49.66% (68,286) |
48.63% (66,869) |
+1.03 (1,417) |
+1.56 (1,957) |
+16.03 (19,011) |
+19.88 (25,424) |
| Northampton County | Pennsylvania | 49.64% (85,087) |
48.92% (83,854) |
+0.72 (1,233) |
+3.78 (5,464) |
+4.71 (6,160) |
+12.3 (16,704) |
| Kent County | Rhode Island | 52.76% (49,113) |
45.12% (42,001) |
+7.64 (7,112) |
+0.67 (548) |
+17.74 (13,997) |
+17.4 (14,626) |
| Ziebach County | South Dakota | 53.09% (481) |
44.59% (404) |
+8.5 (77) |
+1.96 (15) |
+16.43 (125) |
+27.16 (242) |
| Clallam County | Washington | 50.18% (24,721) |
46.81% (23,062) |
+3.37 (1,659) |
+2.76 (1,117) |
+0.38 (143) |
+3.3 (1,271) |
| Door County | Wisconsin | 49.93% (10,044) |
48.48% (9,752) |
+1.45 (292) |
+3.22 (566) |
+6.99 (1,236) |
+17.33 (3,030) |
| Sauk County | Wisconsin | 50.02% (18,108) |
48.32% (17,493) |
+1.7 (615) |
+0.35 (109) |
+18.47 (5,898) |
+23.04 (7,055) |
Last updated: Jan. 4, 9:30 a.m. ET
See also
- Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election
- Margins of victory analysis
- Voter turnout in Pivot Counties
- Demographics of Pivot Counties
- Presidential election, 2020
Footnotes
- ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
- ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
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