Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024

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Election Analysis Hub, 2024
Election analysis
Top 15 elections to watch
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Election results, 2024
State government trifectas
State legislatures
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Thousands of elections are taking place in 2024 across the United States, including primary and general elections at the federal, state, and local levels. These include the 2024 presidential election as well as elections for all 435 seats in the U.S. House, 34 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, and 11 of 50 state governorships.

This page presents Ballotpedia's ongoing research and curation on 2024 elections in the United States, including:

Federal politics

Presidential election

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See also: Presidential election, 2024

The United States will hold a presidential election on November 5, 2024. This will be the 60th presidential election in United States history, and the first to be held after the reallocation of electoral college votes following the 2020 redistricting cycle.[1]

The Democratic Party will select its presidential nominee at the 2024 Democratic National Convention, which will take place from August 19-22, 2024, in Chicago, Illinois.

The Republican Party will select its presidential nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention, which will take place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, from July 15-18, 2024.

As of January 2024, Ballotpedia has identified three noteworthy Democratic presidential candidates and seven noteworthy Republican candidates.

Featured analysis

  • Democratic and Republican presidential nominations: Ballotpedia is providing in-depth coverage of the 2024 Democratic and Republican presidential nomination process, including information on noteworthy candidates, campaign finance, important dates and deadlines, presidential debates, noteworthy endorsements, and more!

More related analysis

Tap the box below to show more analysis articles related to the 2024 presidential election.

United States House of Representatives

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See also: United States House of Representatives elections, 2024

Elections to the U.S. House will be held on November 5, 2024. The seats of all 435 representatives will be up for election. The seats of the six non-voting members of the U.S. House will be up for election as well.

As a result of the 2022 elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority in the U.S. House.[2]

Heading into the 2024 elections, the partisan breakdown in the U.S. House is as follows:

Partisan composition, U.S. House
118th Congress
Party Members
Democratic 213
Republican 220
Vacancies 2
Total 435

Featured analysis (from 2022)

  • Congressional margin of victory analysis: An electoral margin of victory (MOV) is the difference between the share of votes cast for the winning candidate and the runner-up in a single-seat election. In a multi-seat race, the MOV is the difference between the vote share received by the bottom-placing winning candidate and the top-placing losing candidate. Margins of victory can be used to measure electoral competitiveness, political party or candidate strength, and, indirectly, the popularity of a particular policy or set of policies. Congressional races in 2022, on average, were decided by a similar margin of victory (MOV) as in 2020. Relative to 2020, the average MOV increased in the Senate and in the House.

More related analysis

Tap the box below to show more analysis articles related to the 2024 U.S. House of Representatives elections.

United States Senate

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See also: United States Senate elections, 2024

Elections to the U.S. Senate will be held on November 5, 2024, and 34 of the 100 seats are up for election. Thirty-three of those seats are up for regular election, and one[3] is up for a special election.

Of the 33 regularly scheduled elections in 2024, 10 seats are held by Republicans, 20 seats are held by Democrats and three seats are held by independents who caucus with Democrats.

Two special elections are scheduled for November 5, 2024. One special election will be held to fill the last two years of the six-year term that Ben Sasse (R) was elected to in 2020.[4][5][6] The other special election is to fill the rest of the six-year term that Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) was elected to in 2018. Feinstein died on Sept. 29. 2023. The Senate seat Feinstein held is also up for regular election on November 5, 2024.[7]

Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 33 regular elections on November 5, 2024, will begin their six-year terms on January 3, 2025.

Following the 2022 elections, Democrats gained a net of one seat, maintaining control of the chamber. Republicans held 49 seats following the elections, while Democrats held 49 seats and independents who caucus with Democrats held two. After the elections, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced she had changed her party affiliation from Democrat to Independent. Sinema kept the committee assignments she had as a member of the Democratic caucus.[8]

Heading into the 2024 elections, the partisan breakdown in the U.S. Senate is as follows:

Partisan composition, U.S. Senate
118th Congress
Party Members
Democratic 48
Republican 49
Independent 3[9]
Vacancies 0
Total 100

Featured analysis (from 2022)

More related analysis

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State politics

State legislative elections

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See also: State legislative elections, 2024

In the 50 states, there are 99 state legislative chambers altogether. Across 44 states, 85 of those chambers are holding regular legislative elections in 2024. The general election for state legislative races is on November 5, 2024.

States are also holding special state legislative elections in 2024 to fill vacant seats. Click here for more.

In the U.S. Territories, eight legislative chambers are holding regularly scheduled elections for 169 seats in 2024. Elections will be held for the American Samoa House of Representatives, the Guam Legislature, the Puerto Rico Senate and House of Representatives, the Northern Mariana Islands Senate and House of Representatives, and the U.S. Virgin Islands Legislature.

As of December 5, 2023, Republicans controlled 54.75% of all state legislative seats nationally, while Democrats held 44.35%. Republicans held a majority in 57 chambers, and Democrats held the majority in 39 chambers. Two chambers (Alaska House and Alaska Senate) were organized under multipartisan, power-sharing coalitions. Control of the Michigan House of Representatives is split.

Partisan balance of all 7,386 state legislative seats
Legislative chamber Democratic Party Republican Party Grey.png Other Vacant
State senates 853 1,108 4 8
State houses 2,415 2,940 21 37
Total: 3,268

4,048

25

45


Featured analysis

  • State legislative seats that changed party control in 2022: As a result of the Nov. 8, 2022, elections, partisan composition of all 7,386 state legislative seats changed by less than half a percentage point. Democrats had a net loss of six seats, representing 0.1% of all state legislative seats. Republicans had a net gain of 28 seats, representing 0.4% of all state legislative seats.[10] Independents and minor party officeholders had a net loss of 20 seats, representing 0.2% of all state legislative seats.
  • Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 12, 2022: Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices. State legislative competitiveness in 2022 reached its highest level compared to all even-year election cycles since 2010. In 2022, the nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index is 36.2, beating out 2018 (36.1) and the 2012 post-redistricting cycle (35.2).

More related analysis

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State executive elections

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See also: State executive official elections, 2024

State executive offices up for election in 2024 include 11 gubernatorial seats, nine lieutenant gubernatorial seats, 10 attorney general seats, and seven secretary of state seats. Including down-ballot races, there are 163 state executive seats up for election across 30 states in 2024.[11]

In 2022, 307 state executive offices were up for election across 44 states. Twenty offices changed party control, including two previously held Republican lieutenant governorships that changed parties because the governor and lieutenant governor ran on a joint ticket. Of the 18 offices which changed partisan control due to direct election, 10 switched from Democrat to Republican, seven switched from Republican to Democrat, and one nonpartisan official was succeeded by a Republican. A total of 26 incumbents seeking re-election to state executive offices were defeated, with 10 of those losing in the general election and 16 losing in their party's primary or nominating convention.

Featured analysis (from 2022)

  • Trifecta vulnerability in the 2022 elections: Thirteen state government trifectas were vulnerable in the 2022 elections, according to Ballotpedia's annual trifecta vulnerability ratings. Democrats defended seven vulnerable trifectas and Republicans defended six. A state government trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. At the time of the 2022 elections, there were 37 state government trifectas: 23 Republican trifectas and 14 Democratic trifectas. The remaining 13 states had a divided government where neither party had a trifecta.
  • State government triplexes: Heading into the November 8 elections, there were 23 Republican triplexes, 18 Democratic triplexes, and 9 divided governments where neither party held triplex control. A state government triplex is a term to describe when one political party holds the following three positions in a state's government: governor, attorney general, and secretary of state.[12] In states where the attorney general or secretary of state are appointed by the governor, Ballotpedia considers the office to be held by the governor's party for the purposes of defining triplexes.[13]
  • Annual State Executive Competitiveness Report: Ballotpedia's 2022 study of competitiveness in state executive official elections found that 37.1% of incumbents did not seek re-election, leaving those offices open. This was higher than in 2020 (35.6%) and 2014 (32.7%) but lower than in 2018 (38.6%) and 2016 (45.2%). The decade average for open offices was 37.8%.

More related analysis

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State judicial elections

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See also: State judicial elections, 2024

A total of 298 appellate court seats are up for election in 2024. The seats include:

  • 82 supreme court seats.
  • 216 intermediate appellate court seats.

Ballotpedia provides coverage of supreme court and intermediate appellate court elections, as well as local trial court elections for judges within the 100 largest cities in the United States as measured by population.

In addition, in the U.S. Territories, four judges will be on the ballot in retention elections in 2024. One judge on the Guam Supreme Court, two on the Guam Superior Court, and one on the Northern Mariana Islands Superior Court must stand for retention to remain on the bench.

Featured analysis

  • Partisanship of state supreme court judges: In June 2020, Ballotpedia conducted a study into the partisanship of state supreme court justices. The study placed each justice into one of five categories indicating confidence in their affiliations with either the Democratic or Republican Parties. These categories were Strong Democratic, Mild Democratic, Indeterminate, Mild Republican, and Strong Republican.

More related analysis

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Local elections

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See also: United States municipal elections, 2024

This page section will contain links to all local elections elections covered on Ballotpedia in 2024, including municipal elections, school board elections, local trial court judicial elections, and local ballot measure elections. More information will be added to this page as it becomes available.

Ballotpedia's coverage scope for municipal elections included elections on the ballot in the 100 largest U.S. cities by population, as well as elections for mayors, city council members, and district attorneys in each state capital.

Ballotpedia covers school board elections in 475 school districts. This includes all school districts in the 100 largest cities by population and the 200 largest school districts by student enrollment. Ballotpedia also covers all school board recalls in the United States.

Our coverage scope for local elections continues to grow, and you can use Ballotpedia's sample ballot tool to see what school board elections we are covering in your area.

Featured analysis (from 2022)

More related analysis

Tap the box below to show more analysis articles related to the 2024 local elections.

Ballot measures

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See also: 2024 ballot measures

As of January 4, 2024, 55 statewide ballot measures have been certified for the ballot in 25 states for elections in 2024.

Featured analysis (from 2022)

  • Ballot measure readability scores, 2022: Ballotpedia's readability report analyzes what level of education voters would need to understand the ballot titles and summaries of statewide ballot measures using Flesch Reading Ease (FRE) and Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level (FKGL). A readability score is an estimation of the reading difficulty of a text. Measurements used in calculating readability scores include the number of syllables, words, and sentences in a text. Other factors, such as the complexity of an idea in a text, are not reflected in readability scores.
  • Trends in statewide ballot measures (2022): As part of our coverage of statewide ballot measures in 2022, Ballotpedia identified five topics that will be on the ballot across multiple states in 2022. These topics are: abortion, marijuana, voting-related policies, changes to state initiative processes, and amendments on enslavement, servitude, and criminal punishment.

More related analysis

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Election coverage by state

Click your state on the map below to navigate to relevant election information.
See also: Elections by state and year.

http://ballotpedia.org/STATE_elections,_2024

Election resources

Footnotes

  1. 270 to Win, "Historical Presidential Elections," accessed January 17, 2023
  2. These figures include the seat of Rep. Donald McEachin (D), who passed away on November 28, after winning re-election.
  3. This number does not include the special election for a Senate seat in California, as that seat is also up for regular election.
  4. Tampa Bay Times, "Sen. Ben Sasse chosen as 13th UF president in unanimous vote of trustees," November 1, 2022
  5. Fox 42, "Sen. Ben Sasse has been confirmed as President of the University of Florida," November 9, 2022
  6. Siouxland News, "Nebraska's Ben Sasse resigning from US Senate," December 5, 2022
  7. Associated Press, "Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California, trailblazer and champion of liberal priorities, dies at age 90," Sept. 29, 2023
  8. Politico, "Sinema switches to independent, shaking up the Senate," December 9, 2022
  9. Two Independents caucus with the Democratic Party. Another independent, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, counts toward the Democratic majority for committee purposes.
  10. This total includes three seats created in Wyoming during the 2020 redistricting process, which affects the net changes before and after the Nov. 8 elections.
  11. Ballotpedia describes the offices of governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and secretary of state as top-ballot state executive offices. Down-ballot state executive offices that exist in all 50 states include superintendent of schools, insurance commissioner, agriculture commissioner, labor commissioner, and public service commissioner. Examples of other down-ballot state executive offices include treasurer, auditor, and comptroller.
  12. Ballotpedia chose to highlight these offices because they are typically the most visible positions in states and serve important administrative functions.
  13. This is because it is very uncommon for an attorney general or secretary of state appointed by a governor to often be in direct conflict with that governor.
  14. In 2021, 28 of the top 100 cities held mayoral elections, and two offices changed partisan control: one as a result of an election, and one as the result of a mayor switching parties. Once mayors elected in 2021 assumed office, the mayors of 63 of the country's 100 largest cities were affiliated with the Democratic Party, 26 were Republicans, four were independent, six were nonpartisan, and one was unknown. Ahead of the 2022 election cycle, Ballotpedia updated our list of top 100 cities based on data from the 2020 census, swapping out Birmingham, Alabama, which had a Democratic mayor at the time, and San Bernardino, California, with a Republican mayor, for Santa Clarita, California, with a Republican mayor, and Spokane, Washington, with a nonpartisan mayor.