Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 13, 2023

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Last updated on December 1, 2023

Ballotpedia's 13th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 578 state legislative seats that were up for election in November 2023 in Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.

In 2023, the overall State Legislative Competitiveness Index increased from a decade high 30.8 in 2019 to 31.6. This analysis only includes odd years when all four states held elections (2011, 2015, 2019, and 2023). The data show that 138 (24%) legislative seats up for election were open. This was the largest number and percentage of open seats since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011. 

Of the four states holding elections this year (and previously together in 2011, 2015, and 2019), New Jersey had the highest competitiveness index in all four cycles.

This year's index score was higher than in 2019 because there were more head-to-head matchups between Republican and Democratic candidates. Additionally, the number of open seat contests was the largest since at least 2011.

Key findings of this report include:

138 seats were open (23.9%), the largest number and percentage since 2011.

115 incumbents faced contested primaries (26.0%), the second-largest number and percentage since 2011.

259 seats were contested by both major parties (44.8%), the second-largest number since 2011.

Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2023
Chamber	Open seats	Incs. in contested primaries	Major party competition	Competitiveness Index
House	25.3%	24.3%	42.0%	30.5
Senate	20.5%	29.7%	51.5%	33.9
Total	23.9%	26.0%	44.8%	31.6

This report is organized into five sections. They are:

• Competitiveness overview
• State-specific competitiveness information
• Open seats
• Incumbents in contested primaries
• Major party competition

Competitiveness overview

Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

• Open seats, those where no incumbents filed to run;
• Incumbents in contested primaries, those who could potentially lose to challengers; and,
• Major party competition — where Democrats and Republicans meet head-to-head in the general election.

These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2011 to 2023 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2011-2023
	2011	2013	2015	2017	2019	2021	2023	AVERAGE
Competitiveness Index	28.1	30.3	25.4	34.9	30.8	40.0	31.6	31.5
Open seats	17.0%	6.8%	14.7%	9.1%	19.5%	7.7%	23.9%	16.3%
Inc. in contested primaries	21.4%	11.7%	23.3%	16.0%	28.9%	19.7%	26.0%	22.5%
Seats with major party competition	46.0%	72.3%	38.3%	79.5%	44.1%	92.7%	44.8%	59.7%

The graphic below combines these figures for every election cycle from 2011 to 2023, showing the change in competitiveness, and how each criterion affects the overall competitiveness indices, over time.

State overviews

Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2023, along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.

State Legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2023
State	Open seats		Incs. in contested primaries		Major party competition		Competitiveness Index
	%	Rk.	%	Rk.	%	Rk.	#	Rk.
Nationwide	23.9%	-	26.0%	-	44.8%	-	31.6	-
Louisiana	29.2%	2	38.2%	1	17.4%	3	28.3	3
Mississippi	13.8%	4	28.0%	2	14.4%	4	18.7	4
New Jersey	23.3%	3	18.3%	3	91.7%	1	44.4	1
Virginia	31.4%	1	17.3%	4	70.7%	2	39.8	2

Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index from 2011 to 2023.

State Legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2011-2023
State	2011		2013		2015		2017		2019		2021		2023
	#	Rk.	#	Rk.	#	Rk.	#	Rk.	#	Rk.	#	Rk.	#	Rk.
Nationwide	28.1	-	30.3	-	25.4	-	34.9	-	30.8	-	40.0	-	31.6	-
Louisiana	30.9	2	-	-	24.7	3	-	-	37.7	2	-	-	28.3	3
Mississippi	25.3	3	-	-	26.7	2	-	-	23.0	4	-	-	18.7	4
New Jersey	42.3	1	38.9	1	38.2	1	43.6	1	44.3	1	41.8	1	44.4	1
Virginia	17.7	4	19.9	2	17.9	4	24.5	2	27.8	3	38.0	2	39.8	2

Louisiana

Louisiana had a Competitiveness Index of 28.3, ranking it third of the four states that held elections.

• 42 of the 144 seats up for election were open (29%).
• 39 of the 102 incumbents who ran for re-election faced contested primaries (38%).
• 25 of the 144 seats up for election were contested by both major parties (17%).

In 2023

Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents. Click on headings for more state-specific information.

State Legislative Competitiveness Index in Louisiana, 2023
Chamber	Open seats	Incs. in contested primaries	Major party competition	Competitiveness Index
House	29.5%	40.5%	16.2%	28.8
Senate	28.2%	32.1%	20.5%	27.0
Total	29.2%	38.2%	17.4%	28.3

2011-2023

Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

State Legislative Competitiveness Index in Louisiana, 2011-2023
Year	Open seats	Incs. in contested primaries	Major party competition	Competitiveness Index	Rank
2011	25.0%	45.5%	22.2%	30.9	2 / 4
2013	Did not hold elections
2015	23.6%	34.5%	16.0%	24.7	3 / 4
2017	Did not hold elections
2019	41.7%	46.4%	25.0%	37.7	2 / 4
2021	Did not hold elections
2023	29.2%	38.2%	17.4%	28.3	3 / 4

See also:

• Louisiana House of Representatives elections, 2023
• Louisiana State Senate elections, 2023

Mississippi

Mississippi had a Competitiveness Index of 18.7, ranking it fourth of the four states that held elections.

• 24 of the 174 seats up for election were open (14%).
• 42 of the 150 incumbents who ran for re-election faced contested primaries (28%).
• 25 of the 174 seats up for election were contested by both major parties (14%).

In 2023

Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents. Click on headings for more state-specific information.

State Legislative Competitiveness Index in Mississippi, 2023
Chamber	Open seats	Incs. in contested primaries	Major party competition	Competitiveness Index
House	15.6%	27.2%	13.9%	18.9
Senate	9.6%	29.8%	15.4%	18.3
Total	13.8%	28.0%	14.4%	18.7

2011-2023

Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

State Legislative Competitiveness Index in Mississippi, 2011-2023
Year	Open seats	Incs. in contested primaries	Major party competition	Competitiveness Index	Rank
2011	15.5%	23.1%	37.4%	25.3	3 / 4
2013	Did not hold elections
2015	13.2%	34.2%	32.8%	26.7	2 / 4
2017	Did not hold elections
2019	14.4%	31.5%	23.0%	23.0	4 / 4
2021	Did not hold elections
2023	13.8%	28.0%	14.4%	18.7	4 / 4

See also:

• Mississippi House of Representatives elections, 2023
• Mississippi State Senate elections, 2023

New Jersey

New Jersey had a Competitiveness Index of 44.4, ranking it first of the four states that held elections.

• 28 of the 120 seats up for election were open (23%).
• 17 of the 93 incumbents who ran for re-election faced contested primaries (18%).
• 110 of the 120 seats up for election were contested by both major parties (92%).

In 2023

Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents. Click on headings for more state-specific information.

State Legislative Competitiveness Index in New Jersey, 2023
Chamber	Open seats	Incs. in contested primaries	Major party competition	Competitiveness Index
House	25.0%	16.7%	90.0%	43.9
Senate	20.0%	21.2%	95.0%	45.4
Total	23.3%	18.3%	91.7%	44.4

2011-2023

Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

State Legislative Competitiveness Index in New Jersey, 2011-2023
Year	Open seats	Incs. in contested primaries	Major party competition	Competitiveness Index	Rank
2011	12.5%	17.0%	97.5%	42.3	1 / 4
2013	5.0%	14.9%	96.7%	38.9	1 / 2
2015	8.8%	9.6%	96.3%	38.2	1 / 4
2017	10.8%	24.3%	95.8%	43.6	1 / 2
2019	5.0%	32.9%	95.0%	44.3	1 / 4
2021	10.0%	21.3%	94.2%	41.8	1 / 2
2023	23.3%	18.3%	91.7%	44.4	1 / 4

See also:

• New Jersey General Assembly elections, 2023
• New Jersey State Senate elections, 2023

Virginia

Virginia had a Competitiveness Index of 39.8, ranking it second of the four states that held elections.

• 44 of the 140 seats up for election were open (31%).
• 17 of the 98 incumbents who ran for re-election faced contested primaries (17%).
• 99 of the 140 seats up for election were contested by both major parties (71%).

In 2023

Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents. Click on headings for more state-specific information.

State Legislative Competitiveness Index in Virginia, 2023
Chamber	Open seats	Incs. in contested primaries	Major party competition	Competitiveness Index
House	33.0%	8.8%	65.0%	35.6
Senate	27.5%	36.7%	85.0%	49.7
Total	31.4%	17.3%	70.7%	39.8

2011-2023

Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

State Legislative Competitiveness Index in Virginia, 2011-2023
Year	Open seats	Incs. in contested primaries	Major party competition	Competitiveness Index	Rank
2011	14.3%	1.6%	37.1%	17.7	4 / 4
2013	9.0%	7.7%	43.0%	19.9	2 / 2
2015	10.7%	8.0%	35.0%	17.9	4 / 4
2017	7.0%	6.5%	60.0%	24.5	2 / 2
2019	11.4%	11.3%	60.7%	27.8	3 / 4
2021	5.0%	17.9%	91.0%	38.0	2 / 2
2023	31.4%	17.3%	70.7%	39.8	2 / 4

See also:

• Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2023
• Virginia State Senate elections, 2023

Open seats

See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2023

There were 578 state legislative seats up for election in November 2023 in four states. Of that total, there were 138 open seats, guaranteeing at least 24% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was the largest number and percentage of open seats since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.

An open seat is one where no incumbent filed to run, meaning it is guaranteed to be won by a newcomer. Learn more about the terms and methodologies used in this analysis.

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

In 2023:

There were 62 open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.

There were 74 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.

There were two other open seats. This includes those most recently held by minor party or independent officeholders at the time of filing.

The total number of open seats—138—was the highest since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011, representing a 31% increase from 2019, which was the last time all four states held elections.

Open state legislative seats, 2023
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic	Republican	Other	Total
					#	%
House	407	45	56	2	103	25.3%
Senate	171	17	18	0	35	20.5%
Total	578	62	74	2	138	23.9%

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2011 to 2023. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders.

Incumbents in contested primaries

See also: State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2023

There were 578 state legislative seats up for election in November 2023 in four states. Overall, 443 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total, 115 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing 26% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This is the second-largest number and percentage of incumbents running in contested primaries in an odd year since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.

A primary is contested when there are more candidates running than nominations available. When this occurs, and an incumbent is present, it means the incumbent could possibly lose the primary. Learn more about the terms and methodologies used in this analysis.

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.

In 2023:

There were 49 Democratic incumbents in contested primaries, representing 26% of all Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election, a 28% decrease from 2019.

There were 66 Republican incumbents in contested primaries, representing 26% of all Republican incumbents who filed for re-election, an 18% increase from 2019.

The total number of incumbents in contested primaries—115—was lower than in 2019 (125), the last time all four states held elections, representing an 8% decrease.

In odd years from 2011 to 2023, an average of 21.0% of incumbents were in contested primaries, compared to the average of 21.7% in even years between 2010 and 2022.

Mississippi had the most incumbents in contested primaries with 42, followed by Louisiana (39), New Jersey (17), and Virginia (17). In 2019, Mississippi had the most incumbents in contested primaries with 47, followed by Louisiana (39), New Jersey (25), and Virginia (14).

State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2023
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic			Republican			Total
		Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%
House	407	126	27	21.4%	176	47	26.7%	305	74	24.3%
Senate	171	61	22	36.1%	76	19	25.0%	138	41	29.7%
Total	578	187	49	26.2%	252	66	26.2%	443	115	26.0%

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries from 2011 to 2023.

All contested primaries

See also: Contested state legislative primaries, 2023

This section shows figures on all contested state legislative primaries, regardless of whether an incumbent was present. There were 538 state legislative districts up for election nationwide, creating 877 possible primaries. Of that total, there were 204 contested primaries, meaning 23% of all primaries were contested. This was lower than in 2019 (25%), the last time all four states held elections.

In 2023:

There were 62 contested Democratic primaries, representing 16% of all possible Democratic primaries and a 7% decrease from 2019.

There were 66 contested Republican primaries, representing 20% of all possible Republican primaries and an 18% increase from 2019.

There were 76 contested top-two/four primaries, representing 53% of all possible top-two/four primaries and a 17% decrease from 2019.

The total number of contested primaries—204—was down from 2019 (215), the last time all four states held elections, representing a 5% decrease.

Contested state legislative primaries, 2023
Chamber	Districts
		Democratic		Republican		Top-two/four		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
House	367	35	13.4%	45	20.5%	57	54.3%	137	23.3%
Senate	171	27	20.5%	21	17.6%	19	48.7%	67	23.1%
Total	538	62	15.7%	66	19.5%	76	52.8%	204	23.3%

The chart below shows a breakdown of contested primaries from 2011 to 2023.

Major party competition

See also: Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2023

There were 578 state legislative seats up for election in November 2023 in four states. Of that total, 319 (55%) were uncontested and had no major party competition. The remaining 259 (45%) were contested by both major parties. This was the second-largest number of seats with no major party competition in an odd year since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.

A seat has major party competition when candidates from both major parties are on the general election ballot. When only one major party is running for a seat, it has no major party competition and is effectively guaranteed to the major party candidate on the ballot. Learn more about the terms and methodologies used in this analysis.

Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.

In 2023:

Democrats were guaranteed to win 117 seats (20%) that lacked Republican competition, an 18% decrease from 2019.

Republicans were guaranteed to win 201 seats (35%) that lacked Democratic competition, a 27% increase from 2019.

Overall, Democrats ran for 376 seats (65%) and Republicans ran for 460 (80%).

The total number of seats without major party competition—319—was more than in 2019 (301), the last time all four states held elections, representing a 6% increase.

In odd years from 2011 to 2023, an average of 60% of seats had major party competition, compared to the average of 61% in even years between 2010 and 2022.

One of the two major parties was guaranteed a simple majority in four chambers across two states due to the lack of major party competition.

Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2023
Chamber	Seats
		Uncontested						Contested
		Only Democrats		Only Republicans		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
House	407	92	22.6%	143	35.1%	236	58.0%	171	42.0%
Senate	171	25	14.6%	58	33.9%	83	48.5%	88	51.5%
Total	578	117	20.2%	201	34.8%	319	55.2%	259	44.8%

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of major party competition in state legislative elections from 2011 to 2023.

Terms and definitions

Use the links below to view terms, definitions, and methodologies specific to the three competitiveness criteria:

• Open seats
• Incumbents in contested primaries
• Major party competition

See also

• Election results, 2023: State legislatures
• State legislative elections, 2023
  • Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2023
  • Open seats in state legislative elections, 2023
  • Contested state legislative primaries, 2023
  • State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2023
  • Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2023
  • Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections, 2023
• Primary election competitiveness in state government, 2023