Annual State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2023
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Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections |
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Ballotpedia's 2023 study of competitiveness in state executive official elections found that 47.2% of incumbents did not seek re-election, leaving those offices open. This is the lowest percentage of open seats in an odd-year election since 2015. The open seat rate was 57% in 2021.
Our study also found that 33.3% of partisan races did not have major party competition (meaning either the Democratic or the Republican Party did not have a candidate on the general election ballot). In the last cycle that aligns with these offices up (2019), the percentage of races without major party competition was 38.3%. The decade average for races without major party competition was 15.0%.
Key sections of analysis on this page include:
- Incumbents not seeking re-election
- Incumbents facing challengers
- Races without major party competition
Of the various types of executive offices, only seven exist in all 50 states: governor, attorney general, superintendent of schools, insurance commissioner, agriculture commissioner, labor commissioner, and public service commissioner.
Other state executive offices include lieutenant governor, secretary of state, treasurer, controller, auditor, public lands commissioner, tax commissioner, railroad commissioner, public education commissioner, mine inspector, executive council, state board of equalization, state board of education, and state board of regents.
Defining competitiveness
An election is considered more competitive when there is no incumbent running for re-election. This analysis examines both the degree of competitiveness, relative to past election years, and factors that may have contributed to the degree of competitiveness in the current year.
Incumbent advantage is frequently cited in political theory and its importance frequently debated. For example, data compiled by OpenSecrets.org shows the re-election rate for incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives has been 85% or higher for each of the 28 two-year election cycles between 1964 and 2020. From 2010-2020, the re-election rate averaged 92.2%.
Incumbents not seeking re-election, 2011-2023
There were 17 state executive office elections in 2023 without an incumbent on the general election ballot. As a percentage of all offices on the ballot, 47% of incumbents did not seek re-election. This was higher than in 2019 (45%) and 2015 (36%) but lower than in 2021 (57%) and 2017 (63%). The average for open offices since 2011 was 37.8%.
Click [Show] on the table below to view number totals:
| Open offices v. incumbents seeking re-election, 2011-2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offices up for election | Open offices | % Open offices | Incumbents seeking re-election | % Incumbents seeking re-election | |||
| 2023 | 36 | 17 | 47.2% | 19 | 52.8% | ||
| 2022 | 307 | 114 | 37.1% | 193 | 62.9% | ||
| 2021* | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 3 | 42.9% | ||
| 2020 | 163 | 58 | 35.6% | 105 | 64.4% | ||
| 2019 | 33 | 15 | 45.4% | 18 | 54.5% | ||
| 2018 | 303 | 117 | 38.6% | 186 | 61.4% | ||
| 2017* | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 3 | 37.5% | ||
| 2016 | 93 | 42 | 45.2% | 51 | 54.8% | ||
| 2015 | 25 | 9 | 36.0% | 16 | 64.0% | ||
| 2014 | 226 | 74 | 32.7% | 152 | 67.3% | ||
| 2013* | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 3 | 50.0% | ||
| 2012 | 94 | 27 | 28.7% | 67 | 71.3% | ||
| 2011 | 26 | 7 | 26.9% | 19 | 73.1% | ||
| Total | 1,327 | 492 | 37.1% | 835 | 62.9% | ||
*These results were not considered statistically significant due to small sample size.
Effect of term limits on competitiveness
Of the 17 open state executive elections in 2023, seven of them (41%) occurred because term limits prevented the incumbent from running again. This the highest in an odd-year election since 2017, when 50% of open seats were due to term limits.
Incumbents facing challengers
Incumbents in contested primaries
In 2023, 19 incumbents sought re-election, seven (36.8%) of whom had the potential to face contested primaries.[1]
Incumbents defeated
The following table lists state executive incumbents defeated in general elections.
| Incumbents defeated in the general election | ||
|---|---|---|
| Office | Incumbent | Election winner |
| Mississippi Public Service Commission Central District |  Brent Bailey |
 De'Keither Stamps
|
The following table lists state executive incumbents defeated at conventions and primaries.
| Incumbents defeated before the general election | ||
|---|---|---|
| Office | Incumbent | Primary winner |
| Mississippi Public Service Commission Southern District | Dane Maxwell |
Nelson Carr
|
Races without major party competition
When a candidate from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties runs for a state executive office, that party is all but guaranteed to win the office. Partisan races for 12 of 36 state executive offices (33.3% of the total) did not have major party competition in 2022, the highest rate in even-year elections since Ballotpedia began collecting data in 2012.
In 2023, races for two offices (16.7%) did not have a Republican candidate. The offices with no Republicans on the ballot and therefore likely to be won by Democrats were:
Races for 10 offices (83.3%) did not have a Democratic candidate. The offices with no Democrats on the ballot and therefore likely to be won by Republicans were:
- Louisiana Agriculture Commissioner
- Louisiana Insurance Commissioner
- Louisiana Board of Elementary and Secondary Education District 3
- Louisiana Board of Elementary and Secondary Education District 5
- Louisiana Board of Elementary and Secondary Education District 6
- Louisiana Board of Elementary and Secondary Education District 7
- Mississippi Public Service Commission Northern District
- Mississippi Public Service Commission Southern District
- Mississippi Transportation Commission Northern District
- Mississippi Transportation Commission Southern District
Terms and definitions
Use the links below to view terms, definitions, and methodologies specific to the three competitiveness criteria:
See also
- State executive official elections, 2023
- Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 13, 2023
Footnotes
- ↑ The remaining incumbents either advanced directly to the general election without a primary being held or were lieutenant gubernatorial candidates directly selected by gubernatorial candidates.
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